The Chief Executive Officer of the Centre for the Promotion of Private Enterprise (CPPE), Dr. Muda Yusuf, has warned that recent modest improvements in Nigeria’s inflation figures could be reversed by the escalating geopolitical energy shock linked to the conflict in the Middle East. In a policy brief on the February 2026 inflation data, Yusuf acknowledged that the headline Consumer Price Index (CPI) eased slightly to 15.06% year‑on‑year from 15.10% in January and far below 26.27% a year earlier, but described the gains as fragile rather than a definitive turnaround.
Yusuf credited the disinflation trend to base effects, past monetary tightening, and relative stabilization in macroeconomic conditions, yet stressed that underlying pressures remain strong. Month‑on‑month inflation accelerated to 2.01% in February, while food prices jumped 4.69%, reversing earlier moderation and underscoring the vulnerability of households.
He cautioned that the ongoing geopolitical energy shock, driven by tensions among Iran, Israel, and the United States, could sharply raise fuel and related transport and energy costs, unwind recent gains, and further strain businesses and families already struggling with high living expenses.
For companies, especially small and medium enterprises, Yusuf said the operating environment remains harsh.
Rising energy, logistics, and raw‑material costs, combined with weak consumer demand, are squeezing margins, cutting profits, and increasing the risk of closures, particularly in consumer‑facing sectors.
He urged the government and regulators to adopt a proactive, coordinated, and forward‑looking policy response to shield macroeconomic stability, protect citizens from imported price spikes, and support enterprise survival in an increasingly volatile global landscape.