By Vera Osokpo
Dangote Refinery recorded a net profit of $1.82 billion in the first half of 2026, supported by increased fuel exports to Europe following disruptions to Middle Eastern supply.
The refinery generated more than $13 billion in revenue during the period, a significant turnaround from the $476 million loss reported for the full year in 2025. Conflict-related supply disruptions lifted refining margins and increased demand for fuel from alternative suppliers.
The development has strengthened Dangote Refinery’s position in global fuel markets and increased its importance to Europe’s energy supply. The refinery was originally established to reduce Nigeria’s reliance on imported petroleum products but has increasingly become a major exporter as international market conditions tighten.
“Dangote’s role is likely to increase materially in coming years,” Janiv Shah of Rystad Energy said. He noted that the refinery’s strongest structural impact would likely be on gasoline, while its jet fuel and diesel exports would also become increasingly significant.
Europe faced a major supply shortfall after Iran closed the Strait of Hormuz in response to US-Israeli attacks at the end of February. The disruption reduced the region’s access to Middle Eastern diesel and jet fuel and contributed to a decline in fuel inventories at the Northwest European oil-trading hub to their lowest level in 12 years.
According to Kpler data, Europe imported approximately 80,000 barrels per day of jet fuel from Dangote during the second quarter. That volume represented about 13 per cent of the supply shortfall and made Dangote Refinery Europe’s largest individual supplier of jet fuel during the period.
The United States remained the only country supplying more fuel to Europe than Nigeria in overall country-level imports.
Rystad’s Shah said Dangote’s exports helped Europe avoid even tighter market conditions, noting that the region would still have obtained fuel without the refinery but likely at higher prices and with deeper inventory withdrawals.
Dangote also increased exports of diesel and gasoil, products classified as middle distillates alongside jet fuel. Kpler data showed that the refinery’s diesel and gasoil exports rose by 23 per cent to 48,000 barrels per day in 2026 so far.
Kpler analyst Sumit Ritolia said the exports had increasingly supplied West Africa and Europe, helping to ease pressure in an otherwise tight middle-distillate market.
The refinery has also had a significant effect on gasoline supply since beginning operations in 2024. Dangote produced an estimated 270,000 to 300,000 barrels per day of gasoline in 2026 so far, contributing to a sharp fall in Nigeria’s gasoline imports.
Nigeria’s gasoline imports have declined from approximately 400,000 barrels per day in 2024 to about 83,000 barrels per day this year. Europe previously supplied much of Nigeria’s imported gasoline under a trade estimated to have been worth $17 billion annually.
Dangote Refinery plans to double its capacity to 1.4 million barrels per day by 2029. If completed, the expansion would place it alongside India’s Reliance Jamnagar refinery as one of the largest refining facilities in the world.
Chief Executive Officer David Bird said a planned diesel hydrotreater would enable the refinery to produce a wider range of diesel specifications for international markets.
“We need to make sure we can land our product in any market, anywhere in the world, at any time of year,” Bird said.