Brent crude is heading for its biggest monthly rise on record amid escalating Middle East tensions, with global markets on edge as the conflict threatens key shipping chokepoints and supply routes. The price surge comes as U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude settled above $100 a barrel for the first time since 2022, driven by fears over disruptions to flows through the Strait of Hormuz and the Red Sea.
Brent futures ended Monday up 21 cents, or 0.2%, at $112.78 a barrel, having earlier climbed more than $4 to a high of $116.89. WTI futures gained $3.24, or 3.3%, closing at $102.88, its highest level since July 2022. The price rally reflects the fallout from a widening regional war, after Iran‑aligned Houthis in Yemen launched their first direct missile attacks on Israel, extending the fighting further from the Gaza front.
The conflict has disrupted shipping routes around the Arabian Peninsula and the Red Sea, which handles about 15% of global maritime trade. Although the Houthis have so far avoided targeting tanker traffic, analysts warn that any closure of the southern Red Sea could push oil prices up by $5 to $10 per barrel. The effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz, through which roughly one‑fifth of the world’s oil and gas flows, has already sent Brent up about 57% this month, the steepest monthly gain in global data going back to 1988 and exceeding the spike seen during the 1990 Gulf War. WTI has climbed around 53%, marking its largest monthly gain since May 2020.
U.S. officials insist the market remains well supplied, with Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent noting that additional vessels are still passing through the Strait of Hormuz. Ship‑tracking data show that at least two Chinese container ships managed to transit the strait on a second attempt after initially turning back under threat. Still, President Donald Trump has warned that Iran’s energy plants and oil wells will be “obliterated” if the Strait is not reopened, even as Tehran rejects U.S. peace overtures and continues its missile strikes on Israel.
Trump’s self‑imposed pause on attacks against Iran’s energy infrastructure until April 6 has failed to calm the oil market, with SEB Research noting that investors now demand tangible signs of de‑escalation, not just political rhetoric. In response, the Group of Seven finance leaders pledged to take “all necessary measures” to protect energy‑market stability and limit the broader economic fallout, while U.S. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell signaled the central bank can wait to see how the disruption plays out before deciding on a possible rate hike, suggesting policymakers are watching inflation and growth risks closely.