Shell says global demand for liquefied natural gas will continue on a strong long-term growth path despite recent disruptions in the market.
In its LNG Outlook 2026, the energy company projected that global LNG demand will rise to nearly 700 million metric tons a year by 2050, up from 422 million metric tons in 2025. That represents an increase of about 65 per cent.
The outlook comes against the backdrop of major market disruption, including the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, which has removed about one-fifth of normal monthly LNG supply since conflict in the Middle East escalated in late February 2026. Shell said global LNG trade could remain flat in 2026 before returning to growth in 2027.
According to Shell Integrated Gas President Cederic Cremers, the conflict has caused a systemic shock across the economy, but the LNG industry has remained resilient and adaptable. He said the sector has shown an ability to adjust to changing market conditions.
Shell said much of the expected growth will come from South and Southeast Asia, which are projected to account for about 40 per cent of global LNG imports as countries seek cleaner alternatives to coal for power generation. In more mature Asian markets such as Japan, data centres are also emerging as a growing source of energy demand.
The company also expects LNG use as a marine fuel to rise sevenfold to 27 million metric tons a year by 2035. It added that around 180 million metric tons of new LNG production capacity is expected to come on stream by 2030, which should improve supply and affordability for new importing countries.
For Africa, the forecast points to continued opportunity in LNG development. Mozambique remains one of the most advanced projects on the continent, while Nigeria continues to export LNG through Nigeria LNG, where Shell is a shareholder. Algeria, Africa’s second-largest LNG exporter after Nigeria, also remains an important producer.
Shell further said an additional 200 million metric tons of production capacity will be needed in the 2030s and 2040s beyond projects already under construction. The wider outlook suggests that despite short-term disruptions, LNG will remain a major part of the global energy mix for decades.