The Dangote Refinery is exporting most of the 24 million litres of jet fuel it produces daily to Europe, driven by strong demand from buyers in the region. Although the refinery also supplies Nigerian airlines, which the industry estimates need about 2.1 million litres per day, the bulk of its output is now shipped abroad, where record margins and tighter global supply offer more attractive prices. The refinery, the largest on the continent, was built to transform Africa’s biggest oil‑producing country into a net exporter of refined products, reduce Nigeria’s reliance on fuel imports and insulate the economy from global energy shocks. It became fully operational at the start of the year and is now running at its maximum capacity of 650,000 barrels per day, improving local fuel availability even as domestic prices remain among the highest in Africa.
Nigeria’s fuel market is fully deregulated, so prices are not subsidised by the government as in many other African countries. The situation is further complicated by the Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited’s (NNPC) long‑standing debt‑repayment agreements, which mean Dangote must import most of its crude oil, making it financially advantageous to sell refined products abroad. The Airline Operators of Nigeria say that, including logistics and storage costs, jet fuel prices have climbed to about N3,300 per litre, nearly triple the level in February before the Iran conflict escalated. Dangote has been selling jet fuel at around 1,879 naira per litre, which is close to the price of imported fuel delivered to Lagos earlier in the month.
The Middle Eastern conflict has triggered unprecedented energy disruption and heightened the risk of jet fuel shortages, forcing airlines worldwide to raise ticket prices, add fuel surcharges and in some cases ground aircraft. Nigerian airlines have recently threatened to suspend all flights, prompting the federal government to approve some debt‑relief measures and urge negotiations to agree lower fuel prices. In contrast, Dangote, as a new and highly efficient refinery, has been able to take advantage of record margins for producing jet fuel from crude, with potential for higher profitability if it could rely more on Nigerian crude and reduce freight costs. Analysts estimate that a substantial share of Nigeria’s roughly 1.5 million barrels per day of production is already committed to oil‑backed loans and pre‑export arrangements, limiting the volume available for domestic refiners.
Dangote Group Vice President Davekumar Edwin said the refinery imports most of its crude from the United States, with some additional supplies from other African producers and Brazil, but did not disclose exact volumes. He confirmed that the majority of the 24 million litres of jet fuel produced daily is shipped to Europe, even as the facility remains the main supplier of the estimated 2.1 million litres per day needed by Nigerian airlines. With European buyers willing to pay a premium ahead of the peak summer travel season, imports of jet fuel from Nigeria have averaged between 78,000 and 96,000 barrels per day in April, according to data from Kpler and LSEG, marking the highest level on record.
Alan Gelder, senior vice president for refining, chemicals and oil markets at Wood Mackenzie, noted that European refiners have been earning about 15 dollars per barrel, while he estimates Dangote’s margins at more than double that, thanks to lower crude costs and the scale and technological sophistication of its plant. Edwin did not provide specific profit figures, but industry data show that margins for jet fuel production hit record levels on international markets in March. As a private refinery, Dangote prices its products in line with global benchmarks, meaning that building a large refining complex does not automatically translate into lower domestic fuel prices. The company plans to list its shares in the coming months and is already expanding the refinery complex to 1.4 million barrels per day, a move that could make it the world’s largest refinery by the end of the decade.