Gas, a key component of electricity generation, can accelerate the energy security target of the African continent if gas-producing and gas-consuming markets along the Atlantic coast are effectively linked.
This is based on a recent outlook by S&P Global Energy, which said improved gas supply efficiency could expand market access, strengthen energy security and support greater integration of West African gas markets.
The report, however, said realising this vision for the African Atlantic Gas Pipeline will depend on securing roughly $25 billion to $27 billion in financing, long-term gas purchase agreements and coordinated Nigerian supply, without diverting attention from the more immediate challenge of serving existing domestic and regional demand centres.
Across Africa, the data centre expansion narrative is supported by demand growth potential and untapped renewable resources, but the decisive issue is whether power systems can deliver reliable, bankable electricity without weakening supply for existing grid users.
For West Africa, this links data centre growth directly to the broader power-sector investment challenge: large digital loads will require bankable supply arrangements, not just available resources.
The report identified Nigeria as the clearest example of both the opportunity and the constraint.
Nigeria is emerging as West Africa’s most significant, though still nascent, data centre hub, supported by data localisation requirements and Pioneer Status Incentives that improve the investment case for domestic digital infrastructure.
These measures could support Nigeria’s role as a regional anchor, but grid instability, transmission losses and reliance on diesel-backed self-generation continue to narrow the path to scalable, bankable supply.
Data centre expansion may therefore depend more on private hybrid power solutions than on fully integrated utility supply, exposing the limits of existing grid infrastructure unless supply arrangements and regulation evolve together.
If supplied through bankable grid or dedicated power arrangements, data centres could become anchor loads for wider infrastructure investment; if served mainly through diesel backup or isolated private systems, their broader system benefits would be limited.
The report said West Africa’s power outlook will depend more on execution than demand potential.
Electricity demand growth appears to be underpinned by strong market fundamentals, and S&P Global estimates that the region would require about 35 gigawatts of additional generation capacity by 2035 to keep pace with peak-demand growth.
The strongest prospects lie where commercial structures, gas delivery and grid capacity are advancing together.
Ghana and Côte d’Ivoire appear relatively well positioned because domestic gas development, thermal generation and regional trade are already closely connected, while Senegal is building a potentially stronger gas-to-power platform.
Nigeria offers the largest opportunity by scale, supported by its demand base, gas resources and infrastructure, but it also faces the region’s most significant execution constraints.
The West African Gas Pipeline’s more flexible operation and continued domestic gas infrastructure investment point to practical progress in parts of the region, but the gains are uneven.